Hey there friends! Chuck here, your go-to guy for all things real estate in the Raleigh-Durham-Cary-Chapel Hill region, aka the Triangle and I've got a HUGE question for you. Do you want to know how to perfectly time the real estate market so you buy at the bottom and sell at the top?

Now, I get it, I know you're itching to know when the stars will align for that perfect home purchase or sale, right? So many of us are waiting and watching the local market and trying to time it perfectly to maximize our gains and returns but the truth is...that is almost impossible and most of us end up saying "what just happened?" after we've missed our window of opportunity. Because we can only really know it's the bottom or the top..looking backwards. We'll never know for sure while we are in the thick of it but buckle up, because I've got the lowdown on the best strategy to navigate the dynamic real estate market in our neck of the woods and hopefully help you eliminate that feeling of regret if you miss out again.

First things first, forget the crystal ball. None of us have them. I don't care what expert you're following on social media, none of us know for sure what is going to happen. Predicting short-term real estate market movements is like trying to predict the next plot twist in a telenovela—you're in for a wild ride, and no one really knows what's going to happen. So, instead of chasing shadows, the best way to figure out what is likely to happen is to take a stroll down memory lane and see what history tells us has already happened because in all likelihood...things are going to be about like they always have been.

If you were to see a graph of our area since 2004, maybe one like the one just below here, you'll notice a consistent uptrend over time. Sure, we had a hiccup during the Great Recession, but hey, who didn't? The thing to know is that we bounced back faster than almost any area nationally. Even the Great Recession couldn't hold back the relentless rise of home prices here. It's like a rollercoaster that has only gone up.

Now, let's zoom in on the Triangle because that's what I know best and really who this information is for. What's the future of real estate here? Again...it's going to be about like it's always been and the simple answer is it's all about the classic dance of supply versus demand. When supply outpaces demand, it's a buyers' market, and prices dip. There are an abundance of homes, often sitting for longer on the market which allows buyers time and room to make decisions. That gives them the leverage.  When demand outpaces supply, sellers take the stage, and prices soar. There are more buyers than there are homes for sale and builders can't keep up with new construction. We've been in seller's market territory here in the Raleigh/Triangle area for over a decade! See the fancy graph below that proves it nationally.

Agents like me use one key data point to gauge the market's pulse in real time to best advise our clients on who has the most leverage in the moment—it's called "Months Supply of Inventory." In a nutshell, it tells us how long it would take for buyers to snatch up all available homes at the current rate of sales. If it's less than six months? Sellers are popping champagne corks because it's a hot market, and prices are on the express elevator to the penthouse. Anybody remember 2021-2022?

Now, why is the Triangle on fire and the place to buy real estate, you ask? Well, there are a million reasons but to simplify it...it boils down to basic economics of supply vs demand that we learned in 8th grade.

Why is there a demand to live here? A few reasons include a reasonable cost of living compared to most major cities, great weather, proximity to the beach and to the mountains, amazing world class healthcare and universities, great sports and entertainment, big tech, best place to build a business, best place for a healthy lifestyle, best place for this and best place for that and more and more and more. Make sense yet? We've got accolades coming out of our ears—#4 overall by Money Magazine, top-rated for veterans, remote working, economic well-being, and the second safest city in the US. People want a piece of the Triangle pie, and they're not shy about it so they keep coming and coming. Recently I head that approximately 70 families a day move to Wake County alone. That's massive.

Additionally, our supply of homes is another main reason why pricing continues to rise. It is like that elusive pair of Jordan 1's—scarce. Everybody wants them and nobody has them for sale. Builders can't magic up more land, and the prime spots near downtown are already snapped up. Even in outlying areas like Rolesville, Wendell and Fuquay Varina, demand is still red-hot.

So, what's the best strategy to time your home purchase or sale in the Raleigh area? Buy a time machine and go back about 20 years or more. If you can't do that, here's the golden nugget: unless the world implodes or our local supply-demand equation does a 180, buying a home here is like hitting the jackpot IF you're prepared and able to hold it and you're not looking at your investment as a quick turnaround. Even in a downturn, our market tends to bounce back faster than my son touching a hot pan. As Warren Buffet would say, "When others are scared, I get greedy." And trust me, even in a worst-case scenario, the Triangle is the last to feel the pinch and the first to pop back up. I saw it first hand in 2008 when I was a brand new agent.

Got questions or thoughts? Drop them in the comments, and I'll swoop in with answers like a real estate superhero coming to the rescue.

And hey, if you're thinking of making a move, whether it's buying or selling, don't be a stranger. We're always here for you and your referrals. Shoot me an email at chuc[email protected] or set up a Zoom call, and let's make your real estate dreams come true. Until next time, happy house hunting!

If you want to learn more about the process of buying or selling real estate, or working with a real estate agent, Let's see if we might be a good fit to work together. Take a look down there. 👀

You can find me at: On The Web: www.ChuckBelden.com

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https://calendly.com/chuckbelden/am-i-the-right-agent-for-you